NAWAZ SHARIF DID HE PROMISE TO SIGN CTBT THUS REMOVED BY MUSHARRAF

EVEN a cursory reading of the official statements and press releases issued by US and Pakistani sides after the Nawaz Sharif visit will give the impression that hardly any breakthrough was made and both sides stuck to their guns, but the satisfaction and relief in Prime Minister's family circles betrays that conclusion. So what has actually happened and why are the Sharif brothers so happy and enjoying the rest of their visit? This remains a challenging subject for investigative journalists to dig out. The blunt and terse White House comments a few hours after the two leaders ate lunch and briefings by top administration officials later give some clues to what the Americans are expecting from Mr Sharif. Because they were given not-so-public assurances, they could afford to keep their tough public posture for the US media. In return what Mr Sharif will get was clearly indicated by Mr Clinton himself when he virtually asked opposition parties in Pakistan and India to give their governments "a little elbow room" to deliver what they had promised to the Americans.

This was taken by Mr Sharif as an open and public expression of support for him personally which his media spin masters would project as Washington's stamp of approval and authentication to curb any traces of opposition in the military, judiciary, parliament or the media. Thus Mr Sharif is likely to become even more tough in dealing with his adversaries and the most likely target would be the print media, the sections which keep their independence and try to portray the facts as they are, rather than as the PM sees them. According to Karl Rick Inderfurth, the official who was present almost in every meeting except the one-to-one between the two leaders, "Mr Clinton enjoyed talking to Mr Sharif in their closed door meeting." Rick had seen the President immediately after their talks to seek guidance on how the White House Press Corps had to be briefed and it was he who talked tough and appeared rude at times, giving the vibes that the US would not concede anything more unless Pakistan comes forward with more concessions. That is the public position knowing what time frame Mr Sharif had indicated would be followed to meet these targets.

The same Rick was much more sober at his briefing on Friday but he was asked about his demeanour on Wednesday and why was he so tense, discourteous and blunt. "It was Wednesday and today is Friday," was his curt reply but he tried to put some spin for South Asian journalists by saying it was his first White House briefing and his ABC TV senior Sam Donaldson was sitting in the front row making him nervous. But he did get a "well done, my son" compliment from Sam at the end. Yet in both the briefings Rick said almost the same thing and on Friday he was a little bit more specific about what the US was expecting. The four important indicators he gave were: - Pakistan is on the path of signing and ratifying the CTBT. - The future may hold interesting, surprising new developments. - The important thing is that we are in the middle of a process and what we will do will be mutually reinforcing. - I cannot discuss specifics of what Mr Nawaz Sharif said when he was asked to assist in arrest and extradition of Osama bin Laden to the US.

The family circles and those closest to the prime minister, including almost everybody who is anybody in the Sharif mini- kitchen cabinet or decision-makers club, was present in Washington, are displaying big smiles. "Mr Clinton has assured Nawaz Sharif that America would not let him go down, come what may," a confidant who knows what is going on said. "In return Mr Sharif has promised that he would sign the CTBT once the IMF approves the loans and the economy comes under control. And that time frame is just a few weeks, not even months. He has also promised that ISI would be asked at least to push the Taliban to get Osama ben Laden out of Afghanistan, if actually arresting him and dispatching him to the US was difficult," he said. The key to the whole visit is the 20-minute one to one that Mr Sharif had with the President and the confidant said it was there that Mr Sharif convinced the President that he would deliver on his promises.

The threat from the army, fundamentalists and Benazir Bhutto was raised and the assurance was given that Pakistan would continue to talk to India on all issues, even keeping the talks on for the sake of just talking and appearing to meet the US demand to keep tensions from rising, the aide said. The breakthrough has come on the F-16s and Mr Clinton told the Prime Minister that a case in the US courts would be embarrassing for him but he would provide a solution before the deadline for filing the case expires. An amount of $350 million was mentioned and that is precisely what would Pakistan get after adjusting the lease money which the US gets from New Zealand.

The idea is that Pakistan will get the lump sum money from a US commercial bank which will receive the New Zealand payments over the years. How the US pays its part is to be seen. Pakistan will also get a full certification on the drugs issue this year which means that the President will have to issue a waiver as he did last year in US national interest. The US is meanwhile keeping the pressure on Pakistan on the economic front and the IMF Board meeting has been put off to January while it is also not clear when the Paris Club would announce its decision to reschedule the loans that Pakistan has to pay. So the twin pressure would continue and unless Mr Sharif implements his assurances, both public and private, the time frame for bailing out Pakistan would remain vague. Personally if Mr Sharif has won support of President Clinton, the agenda he has now to implement is tough and practically impossible. That is where he will be tested